Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at 奇幻桌遊店冠賽
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-4-2
overall winrate
61.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.2%
avg ELO +6.8 per match
expected value
55.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1371
· median 1371
· range 1261–1481
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1045
Q1 1264
Q3 1449
1591
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 13.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 71.0% | +15.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
